Vinogradova Vera is presenting a poster at #2211 (Climate change in mountains: from impacts to resilience) on July 8 and July 9

In the Soviet times, the Caucasus in Russia was a very popular tourist region. Snow capped mountains and rushing mountain rivers running through deep gorges were a hiker�s delight. But on many field trips to this region to study the mountain ecosystems and the climactic and vegetation changes taking place there, I have seen this exotic and thrilling destination is dangerously quiet.�

Years of human conflict have led us to ask: What awaits the mountain landscapes and ancient villages in this corner of the world? Overgrown slopes and desolation of villages, or new opportunities for the development of eco-tourism? To understand the answer to this question, we need to look at the history of land use and impacts of climate change in this mountain region.�

North Ossetia is mainly mountain meadows, naturally shaped by centuries of grazing. Historical records say that ecosystems of intermountain basins have farmed for more than 3,000 years.�

In 13th-14th centuries, the invasion of the Mongols and Timur saw a mass population exodus from the plain and people started terrace farming. After the second World War 60�100 years ago, we saw an enlargement of collective farms (kolkhoz) with mountain arable lands turned into pastures and haylands.�

By conducting slope topography and soil memory studies we�ve been able to map out the duration and variety of human activity and its interruption. We found that over the past 60-65 years, a diversity of forest-meadow-steppe and subalpine grasslands of the North Ossetia was developed on the former arable lands.�

Over the last 20 years the system of mountain land use has changed a lot. More than 60% of sub-alpine meadows were being underused or were abandoned due to the sharp livestock decrease.

The first finding is that climactic changes such as heat and moisture have had a significant impact on vegetation in the area.�

In the 20th century, the middle mountains of the North Caucasus saw a regeneration of natural boundaries of altitude zones: the expansion of mountain-forest belt and restoration of pine forests on the southern slopes; restoration of mountain meadow steppe and steppe sub-alpine meadows on former agricultural terraces; northern slopes overgrown with elfin birch woods.�

From 2000-2006, we see normal humidification on the slopes of the main Caucasian ridge and therefore high vegetation.

From 2007�2013 the situation changes. In the mountain foothills, moisture decreased, whereas in the middle mountains we see an increase of moisture. �Our observations in the midlands as well as satellite data showed regeneration of the vegetation.�

These processes are occurring in the context of climate change (rising temperatures, increasing moisture) and reduction of human impact. Thus the vegetation of intermountain basins was restored even under the influence of climate and socio-economic changes.�

But it wasn�t just the vegetation that had an impact on human settlement in the area. Despite the years of favourable climactic conditions for agriculture, years of terrible conflict in Chechnya and Georgia have driven people away from the region.

As to the question about the future of the region, well the natural conditions are favorable, but roads, infrastructure, water, investments for the development of tourism and modern agriculture are absent. Ongoing tensions with neighbouring Georgia mean economic assistance to incentivise infrastructure development is likely not forthcoming. Until we have an improvement in the political and military environment, this a rather sad story indeed.

This is part of a blog series profiling climate scientists, economists, social scientists and civil society members who are presenting and discussing innovative climate science at Our Common Future. For more follow @ClimatParis2015 and #CFCC15 on Twitter.